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Author Topic: China US Tariffs  (Read 226 times)

ChillinDylan Godsend

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China US Tariffs
« on: April 04, 2018, 09:45:48 pm »
I'm actually really curious how this plays out.  I don't think the White House expected China to fire back so quickly.  Now there's speculation that this is going to reset the trade rules through heavy negotiations.  I don't yet know how to feel about this, though one of Trump's campaign platforms was that we were getting killed in trade agreements, particularly from China.  Hopefully some common ground can be found over the next few months since the tariffs on either side don't kick in for a while.  Will be interesting to watch for sure.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/tariff-showdown-shifts-to-intense-negotiation-period-1522872439

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Tut

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Re: China US Tariffs
« Reply #1 on: April 05, 2018, 01:29:06 am »
As usual, Trump can't comprehend macroeconomics. While we do have a trade deficit with China, that should not be this high on our list of concerns. Our goal should be doing something about their theft of our intellectual property, which Trump has mentioned, but which doesn't appear to be his focus. The man is a moron who cannot accept the intrinsic value of globalization and free trade.

That said, I think most experts say the US would come out on top in an all-out trade war given the breakdown of our imports/exports. Let's hope it doesn't come to that. In the meantime, this will hit his own base hardest.

ChillinDylan Godsend

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Re: China US Tariffs
« Reply #2 on: April 05, 2018, 01:31:00 am »
As usual, Trump can't comprehend macroeconomics. While we do have a trade deficit with China, that should not be this high on our list of concerns. Our goal should be doing something about their theft of our intellectual property, which Trump has mentioned, but which doesn't appear to be his focus. The man is a moron who cannot accept the intrinsic value of globalization and free trade.

That said, I think most experts say the US would come out on top in an all-out trade war given the breakdown of our imports/exports. Let's hope it doesn't come to that. In the meantime, this will hit his own base hardest.

Well, the tariffs haven't even begun yet - so nobody is actually being hit yet.  I agree that the IP theft is a primary concern with China - and they've been doing it for decades now.  I'm curious to see if that aspect of it comes up in discussions/negotiations. 

Tut

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Re: China US Tariffs
« Reply #3 on: April 05, 2018, 01:38:34 am »
As usual, Trump can't comprehend macroeconomics. While we do have a trade deficit with China, that should not be this high on our list of concerns. Our goal should be doing something about their theft of our intellectual property, which Trump has mentioned, but which doesn't appear to be his focus. The man is a moron who cannot accept the intrinsic value of globalization and free trade.

That said, I think most experts say the US would come out on top in an all-out trade war given the breakdown of our imports/exports. Let's hope it doesn't come to that. In the meantime, this will hit his own base hardest.

Well, the tariffs haven't even begun yet - so nobody is actually being hit yet.  I agree that the IP theft is a primary concern with China - and they've been doing it for decades now.  I'm curious to see if that aspect of it comes up in discussions/negotiations. 

When China's tariffs do hit, they'll hurt farmers in the Midwest the most (and good hardworking Bay Area wine-making millionaires too). If this happens at the right time during the midterm cycle, his ploy to score political points could backfire. However, China might do the calculus and realize the odds aren't in their favor. Somehow I doubt it, though. Xi is going to want to flex his muscles, and there's no way he'll back down that easily.

ChillinDylan Godsend

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Re: China US Tariffs
« Reply #4 on: April 05, 2018, 01:43:42 am »
As usual, Trump can't comprehend macroeconomics. While we do have a trade deficit with China, that should not be this high on our list of concerns. Our goal should be doing something about their theft of our intellectual property, which Trump has mentioned, but which doesn't appear to be his focus. The man is a moron who cannot accept the intrinsic value of globalization and free trade.

That said, I think most experts say the US would come out on top in an all-out trade war given the breakdown of our imports/exports. Let's hope it doesn't come to that. In the meantime, this will hit his own base hardest.

Well, the tariffs haven't even begun yet - so nobody is actually being hit yet.  I agree that the IP theft is a primary concern with China - and they've been doing it for decades now.  I'm curious to see if that aspect of it comes up in discussions/negotiations. 

When China's tariffs do hit, they'll hurt farmers in the Midwest the most (and good hardworking Bay Area wine-making millionaires too). If this happens at the right time during the midterm cycle, his ploy to score political points could backfire. However, China might do the calculus and realize the odds aren't in their favor. Somehow I doubt it, though. Xi is going to want to flex his muscles, and there's no way he'll back down that easily.

Yeah - IF those tariffs hit, it will definitely impact midwest the most.  But I think that was by design.  China's not stupid.  They're literally going in this direction...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UceGF3M56bE

They know that if they attack his supporters, it gives them stronger negotiating power.  That's the only reason to focus so heavily on those specific tariffs.  The more I think about it, I really think both sides are gearing up for a big-time contentious negotiation, and China's trying to leverage every advantage they possibly can before the negotiations start.  Smart move - the bigger stick you wield, the more concessions you get.

Kale Pasta

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Re: China US Tariffs
« Reply #5 on: April 05, 2018, 07:40:52 pm »
As usual, Trump can't comprehend macroeconomics. While we do have a trade deficit with China, that should not be this high on our list of concerns. Our goal should be doing something about their theft of our intellectual property, which Trump has mentioned, but which doesn't appear to be his focus. The man is a moron who cannot accept the intrinsic value of globalization and free trade.
I don't really have that much to add, but I just wanted to say that I agree with this point entirely. Trade deficits basically don't matter at all, but China's theft of IP is a serious concern and it's cost US companies trillions of dollars.

ChillinDylan Godsend

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Re: China US Tariffs
« Reply #6 on: April 05, 2018, 07:48:48 pm »
As usual, Trump can't comprehend macroeconomics. While we do have a trade deficit with China, that should not be this high on our list of concerns. Our goal should be doing something about their theft of our intellectual property, which Trump has mentioned, but which doesn't appear to be his focus. The man is a moron who cannot accept the intrinsic value of globalization and free trade.
I don't really have that much to add, but I just wanted to say that I agree with this point entirely. Trade deficits basically don't matter at all, but China's theft of IP is a serious concern and it's cost US companies trillions of dollars.

I think we are all in agreement that China's IP theft is of primary concern.  That's why I'm curious as to how these negotiations will play out and IF the IP theft will be part of the negotiations.  Regardless, I am going to be very interested to see how it all plays out.

ChillinDylan Godsend

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Re: China US Tariffs
« Reply #7 on: April 09, 2018, 02:55:07 pm »
Interesting byproduct of the proposed China soybean tariff on the U.S.  Europe jumps in and buys the largest one-off of soybean to a European bloc in 15 years. 

This tariff situation has some many different avenues it could take - a lot of them unanticipated, like this one - that it really will be interesting to see how everything develops.  This development potentially gives us a tiny bit more leverage - and it's all a leverage game right now imo...

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china-soybeans/as-u-s-and-china-trade-tariff-barbs-others-scoop-up-u-s-soybeans-idUSKBN1HF0FQ

ChillinDylan Godsend

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Re: China US Tariffs
« Reply #8 on: April 10, 2018, 10:40:07 am »
Strange concession on China's part already.  Not sure why they'd go this route so quickly unless some hand shake deal has already kind of been struck.


China to cut tariffs on car imports.

Charles Longboat Jr.

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Re: China US Tariffs
« Reply #9 on: April 10, 2018, 08:48:18 pm »
I spoke to a friend who knows more about the economic context of these tariffs recently and he said that this would be trade war is an attempt to emulate what the Reagan administration tried in Japan and India, though apparently the former was and is a lot less confrontational than China and the latter ended up backfiring on the US. I donít have much else to add with my current knowledge but I thought that was interesting.

ChillinDylan Godsend

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Re: China US Tariffs
« Reply #10 on: April 10, 2018, 11:00:17 pm »
I spoke to a friend who knows more about the economic context of these tariffs recently and he said that this would be trade war is an attempt to emulate what the Reagan administration tried in Japan and India, though apparently the former was and is a lot less confrontational than China and the latter ended up backfiring on the US. I donít have much else to add with my current knowledge but I thought that was interesting.

Though I was lucid during the Reagan administration, I don't remember much about those trade wars.  I will say, and this is pretty obvious, Reagan was MUCH more eloquent than Trump.  I'm not sure Reagan was less confrontational, he was just way, way smoother and less "angry" about it.  Remember, there was no social media back then, so we didn't get these "ready, aim, fire" reactions.  But make no mistake, Reagan took NO shit from anybody.  I don't think he was as great a President as a lot of people do - but he was pretty good overall and definitely elevated our status as a country you don't mess around with.

ChillinDylan Godsend

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Re: China US Tariffs
« Reply #11 on: April 11, 2018, 05:33:51 pm »
This is a pretty good article on how China views "free trade", which is why this tariff/leverage game being played could have a ripple effect.

If China is the first to blink and they "lose" this trade war game, I would expect other large nations that trade with them to threaten similar tactics.  However, if China bends us over and spanks us, I don't think any other nations will try it.  Seems like a lot might be riding on this. 

Anyway, I like Forbes as one of the more neutral sites, so when I saw this, I thought it was pertinent to the discussion at hand...

https://www.forbes.com/sites/douglasbulloch/2018/04/11/china-is-not-defending-free-trade-so-much-as-its-own-right-to-subvert-it/#6908845e5172

Robert Neville

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Re: China US Tariffs
« Reply #12 on: June 07, 2018, 03:54:25 pm »
So, what does Dylan think about the most recent tariffs that have now hit EU and Canada/Mexico as well, with immediate retaliation from the latter?

ChillinDylan Godsend

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Re: China US Tariffs
« Reply #13 on: June 07, 2018, 11:41:46 pm »
So, what does Dylan think about the most recent tariffs that have now hit EU and Canada/Mexico as well, with immediate retaliation from the latter?

Well these tariffs haven't gone into effect yet.  They do on July 1.  There is a G7 summit this weekend.  I think, much like North Korea, this is pure posturing/negotiation tactic aimed at getting the best deal possible.  I will withhold judgment until the dust clears from the G7 summit and we see where we are at the end of the month.  Initially I was against it.  But I'm giving him a little leash given how well our economy is doing and how his tactics with the North Korea deal have worked thus far.  THIS is why I voted for him - because of his overall business/deal-making acumen compared to the other options.  We will see how this strategy plays out.

Kale Pasta

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Re: China US Tariffs
« Reply #14 on: June 10, 2018, 12:47:13 am »
So, what does Dylan think about the most recent tariffs that have now hit EU and Canada/Mexico as well, with immediate retaliation from the latter?

Well these tariffs haven't gone into effect yet.  They do on July 1.  There is a G7 summit this weekend.  I think, much like North Korea, this is pure posturing/negotiation tactic aimed at getting the best deal possible.  I will withhold judgment until the dust clears from the G7 summit and we see where we are at the end of the month.  Initially I was against it.  But I'm giving him a little leash given how well our economy is doing and how his tactics with the North Korea deal have worked thus far.  THIS is why I voted for him - because of his overall business/deal-making acumen compared to the other options.  We will see how this strategy plays out.
If forcing Trudeau into imposing retaliatory tariffs and alienating some of our closest allies qualify as examples of Trump's "business acumen" I'm really not sure what that's worth. This dude seriously just refused to sign the G7 statement and flamed Trudeau for imposing tariffs that would hurt American workers. I mean, what the fuck?

ChillinDylan Godsend

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Re: China US Tariffs
« Reply #15 on: June 10, 2018, 01:43:18 am »
So, what does Dylan think about the most recent tariffs that have now hit EU and Canada/Mexico as well, with immediate retaliation from the latter?

Well these tariffs haven't gone into effect yet.  They do on July 1.  There is a G7 summit this weekend.  I think, much like North Korea, this is pure posturing/negotiation tactic aimed at getting the best deal possible.  I will withhold judgment until the dust clears from the G7 summit and we see where we are at the end of the month.  Initially I was against it.  But I'm giving him a little leash given how well our economy is doing and how his tactics with the North Korea deal have worked thus far.  THIS is why I voted for him - because of his overall business/deal-making acumen compared to the other options.  We will see how this strategy plays out.
If forcing Trudeau into imposing retaliatory tariffs and alienating some of our closest allies qualify as examples of Trump's "business acumen" I'm really not sure what that's worth. This dude seriously just refused to sign the G7 statement and flamed Trudeau for imposing tariffs that would hurt American workers. I mean, what the fuck?

We are already at a tariff disadvantage with regards to Canada.  He's trying to level the playing field.  In fact, he proposed NO tariffs and NO barriers with regards to ANY of the G7 countries.  They declined because, right now, they have various tariffs imposed on us. 

Tut

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Re: China US Tariffs
« Reply #16 on: June 10, 2018, 02:55:16 am »
I find it funny that the man negotiating our "trade deals" still believes in mercantilism.
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Robert Neville

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Re: China US Tariffs
« Reply #17 on: June 10, 2018, 05:16:48 am »
So, what does Dylan think about the most recent tariffs that have now hit EU and Canada/Mexico as well, with immediate retaliation from the latter?

Well these tariffs haven't gone into effect yet.  They do on July 1.  There is a G7 summit this weekend.  I think, much like North Korea, this is pure posturing/negotiation tactic aimed at getting the best deal possible.  I will withhold judgment until the dust clears from the G7 summit and we see where we are at the end of the month.  Initially I was against it.  But I'm giving him a little leash given how well our economy is doing and how his tactics with the North Korea deal have worked thus far.  THIS is why I voted for him - because of his overall business/deal-making acumen compared to the other options.  We will see how this strategy plays out.
If forcing Trudeau into imposing retaliatory tariffs and alienating some of our closest allies qualify as examples of Trump's "business acumen" I'm really not sure what that's worth. This dude seriously just refused to sign the G7 statement and flamed Trudeau for imposing tariffs that would hurt American workers. I mean, what the fuck?

We are already at a tariff disadvantage with regards to Canada.  He's trying to level the playing field.  In fact, he proposed NO tariffs and NO barriers with regards to ANY of the G7 countries.  They declined because, right now, they have various tariffs imposed on us. 

I remember I once argued with a conservative Swiss guy on Quora who gave Trump for a really large range of things, including the claim that Saudis only permitted women to drive and opened (a) movie theater after Trump personally told them to, because it happened after he visited them. (One would think he wouldn't miss the opportunity to tweet about such a humanitarian achievement if that was the case, but what do I know...)

Nevertheless, he did predict that Trump's ultimate goal was the removal of all tariffs. I think Trudeau immediately countered that this would mean little if subsidies stayed in place. On one hand, I agree that just going with Trump's suggestion could well allow US producers to conquer the markets through pure state aid (i.e. corn producers.)

On the other hand, I also think that subsidies are inherently less disruptive then tariffs and that trade agreements that deny to the country the flexibility to use them, or to nationalize their industries, do not deserve to exist. That is why I supported the left-wing argument for Brexit (as opposed to the mess they are currently going through) - EU membership placed pretty onerous restrictions on that. Though, now it seems that getting EU to bend its rules on the matter would have been easier, especially since they are letting Macron do just that with little complaint. (Not to mention, of course, the shrug that met Rajoy Spain's response to Catalans, which would not have looked out of place in Minsk or on Bolotnaya. Wonder what, if anything, will change on the matter now that they have a Socialist Prime Minister.)

Robert Neville

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Re: China US Tariffs
« Reply #18 on: June 10, 2018, 05:30:51 am »
So, what does Dylan think about the most recent tariffs that have now hit EU and Canada/Mexico as well, with immediate retaliation from the latter?

Well these tariffs haven't gone into effect yet.  They do on July 1.  There is a G7 summit this weekend.  I think, much like North Korea, this is pure posturing/negotiation tactic aimed at getting the best deal possible.  I will withhold judgment until the dust clears from the G7 summit and we see where we are at the end of the month.  Initially I was against it.  But I'm giving him a little leash given how well our economy is doing and how his tactics with the North Korea deal have worked thus far.  THIS is why I voted for him - because of his overall business/deal-making acumen compared to the other options.  We will see how this strategy plays out.
If forcing Trudeau into imposing retaliatory tariffs and alienating some of our closest allies qualify as examples of Trump's "business acumen" I'm really not sure what that's worth. This dude seriously just refused to sign the G7 statement and flamed Trudeau for imposing tariffs that would hurt American workers. I mean, what the fuck?

And I'll have to say that so far, Trump's deal-making acumen has been more than uneven. I'll give him some credit for negotiations with China - he did get them to lower some tariffs (even if his opponents will say that's window dressing) and just extracted a billion dollars from ZTE's coffers straight into the US Treasury, as well as officially embedded US spies (sorry, "compliance officers") there for a decade. No matter your political game-playing, I can assure you many Chinese took it as a notable loss.

Everything else, though... Did his deal-making acumen help him get the healthcare plan he wanted (or Ryan and McConnell told him he should want)? Is it getting him much of anything on NAFTA? He said he would want to renegotiate Paris, but was told to up sticks. On the other hand, he immediately left TPP (good), but then had to tarnish it by saying a year later he would want to rejoin it, obviously to no avail... Anything else I missed?

His statement on turning G-7 back into G-8 was also funny. I'll leave those who keep screaming "collusion", "Trump is directed from Kremlin" etc. to make sense of Lavrov's response, which politely affirmed we do not need it, because G-20 and Shanghai Cooperation Society are far more useful to our interests. That's not really a bluff either - I recall reading frustration with G-8 in our newspapers more than a decade ago, with quite a few statements from various pundits here on how for us it's a useless photo op, and G-20 is where things get done.

ChillinDylan Godsend

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Re: China US Tariffs
« Reply #19 on: June 10, 2018, 08:28:46 am »
So, what does Dylan think about the most recent tariffs that have now hit EU and Canada/Mexico as well, with immediate retaliation from the latter?

Well these tariffs haven't gone into effect yet.  They do on July 1.  There is a G7 summit this weekend.  I think, much like North Korea, this is pure posturing/negotiation tactic aimed at getting the best deal possible.  I will withhold judgment until the dust clears from the G7 summit and we see where we are at the end of the month.  Initially I was against it.  But I'm giving him a little leash given how well our economy is doing and how his tactics with the North Korea deal have worked thus far.  THIS is why I voted for him - because of his overall business/deal-making acumen compared to the other options.  We will see how this strategy plays out.
If forcing Trudeau into imposing retaliatory tariffs and alienating some of our closest allies qualify as examples of Trump's "business acumen" I'm really not sure what that's worth. This dude seriously just refused to sign the G7 statement and flamed Trudeau for imposing tariffs that would hurt American workers. I mean, what the fuck?

And I'll have to say that so far, Trump's deal-making acumen has been more than uneven. I'll give him some credit for negotiations with China - he did get them to lower some tariffs (even if his opponents will say that's window dressing) and just extracted a billion dollars from ZTE's coffers straight into the US Treasury, as well as officially embedded US spies (sorry, "compliance officers") there for a decade. No matter your political game-playing, I can assure you many Chinese took it as a notable loss.

Everything else, though... Did his deal-making acumen help him get the healthcare plan he wanted (or Ryan and McConnell told him he should want)? Is it getting him much of anything on NAFTA? He said he would want to renegotiate Paris, but was told to up sticks. On the other hand, he immediately left TPP (good), but then had to tarnish it by saying a year later he would want to rejoin it, obviously to no avail... Anything else I missed?

His statement on turning G-7 back into G-8 was also funny. I'll leave those who keep screaming "collusion", "Trump is directed from Kremlin" etc. to make sense of Lavrov's response, which politely affirmed we do not need it, because G-20 and Shanghai Cooperation Society are far more useful to our interests. That's not really a bluff either - I recall reading frustration with G-8 in our newspapers more than a decade ago, with quite a few statements from various pundits here on how for us it's a useless photo op, and G-20 is where things get done.

"Anything else I missed?"

Um - North Korea?  Not saying anything is a done deal, but this is as close as we've been to denuclearizing North Korea in decades.  Regardless, he struck a deal to get 3 American hostages released while giving up NOTHING in the process.  Pretty good deal-making there.

Also, pulling out of the Iran deal was a good move - that was a HORRIBLE deal.  If Trump did a deal exactly like that, people (including me) would lose their collective minds. 

He worked a deal to get his tax cut bill passed - and it had an immediate positive effect on the economy (along with rolling back regulations that were suffocating businesses). 

He also FINALLY moved our US Embassy in Israel to Jerusalem.  Why is this significant?  Because every president for the last 20 years has promised to do this.  And none of them ever did because they feared political backlash.  He not only got the deal done, he did it without spending a lot of money or wasting a lot of time.


Now, I'm not happy with him running down Trudeau (although Merkel can kind of go fuck herself).  I think this tactic worked with Kim Jong Un, though I was reticent to believe it would at first.  However, I think you take a different approach with allies, and this could backfire.  I also don't like him meddling in the whole national anthem issue.  I have my own personal beliefs on it, but I don't think it's something the government needs to be sticking its fat nose in - it's really none of their business.  But, from an overall deal-making perspective, I think he's doing a pretty good job in totality - especially when compared to our last 2 Presidents.

The comment of inviting the Russians to the table turning G7 to G8, to me, was simply him trolling Mueller and the liberals.  I think he realizes at this point, regardless of whether he did or not, that they are not going to find any collusion or wrongdoing with respect to HIM and Russia.  I think this was him baiting the MSM into another scattershot tirade, which strangely enough hasn't happened yet.

 

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