+- +-

+- You

Welcome, Guest.
Please login or register.
 
 
 
Forgot your password?

+- Site Data

Members
Total Members: 83
Latest: Hazelrabbit2006
New This Month: 1
New This Week: 0
New Today: 0
Stats
Total Posts: 112651
Total Topics: 4372
Most Online Today: 8
Most Online Ever: 55
(April 18, 2016, 06:09:38 pm)
Users Online
Members: 0
Guests: 1
Total: 1

Author Topic: Hey Neville  (Read 109 times)

Tut

  • God-King
  • Paul Thomas Anderson
  • **********
  • Posts: 6666
  • It's all over now, baby blue...
  • Location: Nice try, NSA
Hey Neville
« on: April 22, 2018, 02:32:07 am »
I'm giving a presentation Tuesday about how your dickhead leader annexed Crimea using a fake referendum and military troops in civilian clothing. Can you give me a Russian perspective on this incident, as well as on the sanctions that followed? It'd really spice up my notes.

Social Buttons


Robert Neville

  • God-King
  • Zack Snyder
  • **********
  • Posts: 1841
Re: Hey Neville
« Reply #1 on: April 22, 2018, 05:13:49 am »
All right, first, I can plug a meme that was apparently popular at the time, but I only saw recently:



A cat thanking the soldiers because he'll no longer go by the Ukrainian version of the word (which sounds just like Russian word for whale.) Speaking of memes, the soldiers that carried out the operation have also been memetically referred to as "polite people" after the surrendering Ukrainians noted their politeness. In about 2016, I remember seeing T-Shirts with the sunglasses-wearing Putin and the caption "The most polite of people" a couple of times. Even so-called "Shoigu's cat" became a meme, when the Defence Minister stated that "the search for so-called "Russian troops" in Donbass is like the search for a black cat in the dark room, except that this time, the cat is polite about it as well."

Second, saying that it was a "fake referendum" is going to get you laughed out of town. It's a particularly twisted construct of most "centrist" Western media, as even the Ukrainians admit the sentiment was real. That is also why you have both the Ukrainians cutting off water, power, etc. to the peninsula and Western companies suspending their services to it - you would not be doing these punishment actions if most people were secretly on your side; they are actions of spite intended to make Crimeans reconsider their support. Another point is the way most of the Ukrainian military and such stationed there defected to us even though they had a choice to leave for mainland (just saw a Quora answer by an anti-Maidan Ukrainian which actually states it was 14,000 out of 18,800, as well as most of the island's police and the security service. Here's a different answer from him with links to Ukraine's own intellectuals (including a Crimean Tatar) speculating there's little binding Crimea to Ukraine, and it's likely to slip away - back in 2009 and 2010.

The above was more of a historical background pre annexation/reunification.  For a situation now, here's some background from one of the more important Russian newspapers. (It's not state-owned, if you are interested, and is usually quite negative the general situation in the country, though it usually avoids pointed criticism of Putin himself, etc.)



First, it shows the more basic stuff in the upper half, with the map: that it's 58% Russian, 62% urban, 54% female, etc. In a fact that is likely to get you some jeers about your own election, only 14,2% people there have a higher education. You could say it's a self-selecting sample because the young people who want to get a higher education leave for universities in the large cities in either country and then generally stay there, but then again, this is probably true of much of your "Rust Belt" as well.

The bottom part, with the graphs, is a little more important, though. It basically shows is that the general incomes of Crimeans, represented in the left-hand column, have all increased relative to their hryvna equivalent (the minimum wage have done so slightly, while the average pensions (second column) and wages (second-to-last) one have nearly doubled (though it's still at a "regional Russia" level, obviously; substantially less then our levels in St. Petersburg, and probably less then half of Moscow's levels.) This happened even as the island's own economy crashed, as seen by the right-hand column (the number of tourists more than halving, with the derived income being 2,5 times less), so pretty much all of the improvements are paid out by our state.

The last point is also the main reason why once-regular Western headlines about if/when Latvia/Estonia etc. would be annexed looked so ridiculous here.  Not only are those places mediocre at best, but adding them would simply add millions more  dependents on our budget; everything in their economy that's bound on EU single market would be gone, and we would be left with a bunch of pensioners (since most young people are in the rich EU countries; Latvia and Estonia are only rivalled by Romania and Bulgaria at how fast their population declines every year due to inter-EU outward immigration.) Only the unpopular minority of truly hardcore "Imperials" do not understand that, and even though many of them now have combat experience from going to Donbass, the chances of them actually getting true power (as opposed to being a prop for anyone, from Putin to Navalny, whenever it's convenient for the latter) are low.

Of course, that doesn't mean there isn't dissent in Russia. I think I stated before that the largest cities of Moscow and St. Petersburg are the most liberal and pro-Western. For them, the jubilation of the "patriots" (derisively called "vatniks"; word referring to cotton wool winter clothing and the idea that arguing with them is pointless because they'll absorb anything you throw at them without budging, just like cotton wool.) was mocked widely; if you say Крымнаш ("Crimea is ours", but written together, like the original hashtag) it's most likely that you are a liberal, (or "liberast" (i.e. libfag), as described by their opponents) who is mocking the reunification and the idea it's worth the sanctions.

However, I should note here that for many of those liberals, it's a tribal, culture-war thing, the desire for being "part of Europe" rather than "this country", that leads to pro-Western stances that are often far from actual liberalism. I have already mentioned earlier that a lot of such self-proclaimed liberals want to effectively open the borders to Europe and close them to Central Asia, a stance coached in a variety of rhetoric but whose underlying motivation is obvious. Equally, you can find them defending Iraq War and the like, as the West's right to bomb "lesser evolved people/civilisations". I have also spoken to my peers who are pro-West, pro-globalisation, fine with gay rights, and can also crack a joke about your police "shooting those Negroes".

Though, I should say that while liberalism (both genuine and the variety described above) is most prominent in Moscow and "Spb", where it's shared by a considerable cross-section of the population (i.e. it's not unusual to find people in the 30-50 age range making the same arguments), it's incorrect to say it's restricted there. In the regions, 20-somethings like me and teenagers growing up in large cities there right now can also share such views) even if pretty much all the people older than them would not. For instance, the Tuvan friend I mentioned earlier is much more pro-Western than me, though his position is a little unique. As in, he's big on loyalty, and considers Crimeans (as well as Donbass separatists, obviously) to be traitors to their country, and so wants to throw them back into current Ukraine immediately because they deserve all they'll get. (On the flip side, he also fully supports the Skripal poisoning, because again, traitors must be punished.)

Another example is this English-speaking Russian YouTuber I discovered this January. While he's ultimately the part of the same clickbaity "commentary community" bullshit I avoid like a plague,  he is relevant here for being slightly younger than me, from Novosibirsk, pro-Western, pro-Trump and anti-Putin - a combination that's less unusual than you might think. (Such people usually mock both the pro-Putin majority here and the "Trump colluded/is Putin puppet/etc. Westerners by pointing to both the Syria strikes, then and now, and to the fact no sanctions were lifted.) I suppose there's more such examples; i.e. I recently saw on Quora a person from Omsk (a city in the middle of nowhere in Russia that's the butt of many a joke in Russia for its supposed backwardness) who wants Poland to annex Ukraine and a bunch of other territories (including Russian border territories) to resurrect the "Intermarium" state (a Civil War-era proposal).

You also asked me about sanctions, but I don't think I can say much interesting here. The general opinion is that we'll endure, and it's nothing compared to what we went through in the 90s, with enthusiastic Western approval. The more patriotic will treat it as another part of the pattern of "Russophobia", the more "liberal" will blame Putin and call for Crimea to be sent back, etc. The counter-sanctions have more argument around them, since it's our own decision, and the scandals regarding its implementation (i.e. the "contraband" food being crushed by bulldozers rather than, say, donated, just to make a point) hardly paint a good picture.

As for my opinion, I'll say that I did not support it happening at the time, but now, I believe it's become our responsibility to take care of them, as well as both the new unrecognised republics in Donbass, and the old ones in Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Transnistria. Ideally, I would hope those will become decent microstates of Eastern Europe, no less stable and peaceful than Monaco, Switzerland or Lichtenstein in Western Europe (obviously, wealth will be a different matter). However, the current system can't even truly care for many of our own regions, (another reason why there's very little actual support for bringing in anything else, as otherwise more patriotic regions realise it'll cost them first) and this is the real problem, and what will have to take precedence. As for counter-sanctions, I think that while it's clear they are not good from the conventional economic perspective, they might be very helpful in the long-term if climate change is fully taken into account. Pretty much any projection of the realistic ~3 C degree global warming will see very significant disruption of global trade routes and enormous issues with food production and supply. Hence, us becoming far more self-reliant in regards to agriculture could well save a lot of pain in the future, even if it's leading to losses right now.
 

ChillinDylan Godsend

  • God-King
  • Wes Anderson
  • **********
  • Posts: 7478
Re: Hey Neville
« Reply #2 on: April 22, 2018, 10:40:47 am »
I think Neville just gave u more than notes - he wrote u a friggin book.  You owe Neville a big fat bottle of vodka methinks.

Tut

  • God-King
  • Paul Thomas Anderson
  • **********
  • Posts: 6666
  • It's all over now, baby blue...
  • Location: Nice try, NSA
Re: Hey Neville
« Reply #3 on: April 22, 2018, 03:15:25 pm »
Good God. Thanks, Neville. This will be most useful. (And I hope you know I was just goading you with that OP to get a longer response.)

Robert Neville

  • God-King
  • Zack Snyder
  • **********
  • Posts: 1841
Re: Hey Neville
« Reply #4 on: April 22, 2018, 03:21:35 pm »
Good God. Thanks, Neville. This will be most useful. (And I hope you know I was just goading you with that OP to get a longer response.)

Yeah, I soon suspected as much.

ChillinDylan Godsend

  • God-King
  • Wes Anderson
  • **********
  • Posts: 7478
Re: Hey Neville
« Reply #5 on: April 23, 2018, 02:24:18 pm »
Good God. Thanks, Neville. This will be most useful. (And I hope you know I was just goading you with that OP to get a longer response.)

Yeah, I soon suspected as much.


Robert Neville

  • God-King
  • Zack Snyder
  • **********
  • Posts: 1841
Re: Hey Neville
« Reply #6 on: April 27, 2018, 04:55:21 pm »
I'm giving a presentation Tuesday...

How did it go?

Tut

  • God-King
  • Paul Thomas Anderson
  • **********
  • Posts: 6666
  • It's all over now, baby blue...
  • Location: Nice try, NSA
Re: Hey Neville
« Reply #7 on: April 27, 2018, 05:07:39 pm »
I'm giving a presentation Tuesday...

How did it go?

My poli sci class is basically a month behind on its material, so I'm actually going to go this next Tuesday now. Regardless, I did bring up a few of the things you said (and credited you as a Russian friend of mine), but I'm starting to think I wasted your pearls with the swines in my class. I don't know how much they internalized. The vibe I got from the room was a suspicion that I was somehow connected to the Russians who hacked our election. College campuses in the US don't have a very high opinion of Russia these days.

I did note that A) There is a massive difference between invading Crimea and invading, say, Lithuania, and B) The fact that support for the annexation, while exaggerated by election rigging, is not inconsequential. In fact, I'm sure over 50% of Crimeans really do support joining Russia.

On Tuesday I'll try to bring up your points about how annexing more regions would just add weight to your budget. Truth be told, I don't think you guys are actually going to make a play for Eastern Europe anytime soon. But I do think this is just another big application of the warm ports theory.

 

+- Hot Threads

THE OFFICIAL MOVIE WATCHING THREAD by Tut
Today at 03:12:53 am

2 Fudge 2 Knuckle by Charles Longboat Jr.
August 15, 2018, 11:43:43 pm

MWO Movie News, a subsidiary of the Walt Disney Company by Charles Longboat Jr.
August 15, 2018, 11:35:35 pm

Favorite Kurosawa Films by Charles Longboat Jr.
August 15, 2018, 11:14:23 pm

THE SCHOOL THREAD! by Charles Longboat Jr.
August 15, 2018, 11:11:42 pm

Funny Memes/Gifs... by Hazelrabbit2006
August 12, 2018, 09:48:12 am

Peter Rabbit (2018) by Hazelrabbit2006
August 09, 2018, 06:38:30 am

The Official "Going to see..." Movie Thread by Hazelrabbit2006
August 09, 2018, 06:37:15 am

Recent purchases (part II) by Tut
August 06, 2018, 02:27:46 pm

The Official Movie Trailer/TV Spot Watching Thread by Frankie
August 06, 2018, 01:46:44 pm

Will be visiting my brother in Moscow by Charles Longboat Jr.
August 02, 2018, 02:46:07 pm

Upcoming 2018 Releases You're Looking Forward To by Crohn's Boy
August 01, 2018, 12:24:08 am

The Official Album Listening Thread by Charles Longboat Jr.
July 31, 2018, 05:14:14 pm

The 2018 US Midterms and Goober-natorial Elections Thread by Tut
July 30, 2018, 05:59:00 pm

What song are you listening to - Part II by Robert Neville
July 30, 2018, 05:07:24 pm