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Author Topic: The North Korea thread (aka We Need to Talk About Korea)  (Read 246 times)

Charles Longboat Jr.

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The North Korea thread (aka We Need to Talk About Korea)
« on: April 19, 2018, 10:43:04 pm »
In the wake of Mike Pompeoís meeting with Kim Jong Un as well as the North and Southís attempt to formally end the Korean War via treaty this may be worth having its own thread.

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ChillinDylan Godsend

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In the wake of Mike Pompeoís meeting with Kim Jong Un as well as the North and Southís attempt to formally end the Korean War via treaty this may be worth having its own thread.

This would be pretty amazing tbh...all politics aside, this could be good news for the world...
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Tut

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Kim was planning this all along. He will let Trump take all the credit so he gets re-elected and wins the Nobel Peace Prize. And then North Korea will have destroyed the West at long last.

ChillinDylan Godsend

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Kim was planning this all along. He will let Trump take all the credit so he gets re-elected and wins the Nobel Peace Prize. And then North Korea will have destroyed the West at long last.

Not sure Kim plans anything past a couple of days.  That being said, it would be a pretty funny plan on the part of his team.

Robert Neville

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Honestly, I am surprised at how the media hype seems to affect even those as seemingly skeptical of it as Dylan. This was always going to be the plan. Watch carefully - they are promising to suspend more tests, which makes perfect sense, because they already have what they wanted - a true deterrent, in the form of both nukes, and missiles with a fair chance of delivering them to US mainland. They were always going to ask for a peace agreement once they knew they could nuke the other side if it gets broken. I anticipated this since 2013, though I thought it would take them till 2020 to get to the point we are at now.

In all, I would be enormously surprised if by the end of the talks, they'll actually agree to do anything meaningfully taking away their capability for a second strike. Anything less then that serves them just fine.

ChillinDylan Godsend

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Honestly, I am surprised at how the media hype seems to affect even those as seemingly skeptical of it as Dylan. This was always going to be the plan. Watch carefully - they are promising to suspend more tests, which makes perfect sense, because they already have what they wanted - a true deterrent, in the form of both nukes, and missiles with a fair chance of delivering them to US mainland. They were always going to ask for a peace agreement once they knew they could nuke the other side if it gets broken. I anticipated this since 2013, though I thought it would take them till 2020 to get to the point we are at now.

In all, I would be enormously surprised if by the end of the talks, they'll actually agree to do anything meaningfully taking away their capability for a second strike. Anything less then that serves them just fine.

This is, of course, assuming that Kim is telling the truth when he says they now have nuclear capabilities.  I, for one, am very skeptical of his claims.  I think it's again (as with China) playing the leverage game.  He can leverage a much better deal or more concessions if the people he's negotiating with actually believe he has nukes now. 

Honestly, I don't trust any media outlet for anything.  The ones I trust "the most" are ones like Reuters, Forbes, WSJ, BBC, etc.  Generally, the only times I'll use any of the "big" US "news" sources (NBC, FOX, CNN, etc) is EITHER when they are using direct quotes from somebody who I am interested in finding out exactly what they said (though I have to be careful because NBC and CNN have a big habit of editing those down) OR if I literally cannot find ANY other source for the information into which I am delving.

ChillinDylan Godsend

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Trump pulls out (LOL) of North Korea summit...

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-44242558



Charles Longboat Jr.

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Trump pulls out (LOL) of North Korea summit...

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-44242558



I suppose we should have expected this to fall through. Ah well.

ChillinDylan Godsend

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Trump pulls out (LOL) of North Korea summit...

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-44242558



I suppose we should have expected this to fall through. Ah well.

Maybe - or this is, once again, just posturing for maximum leverage.  It's kind of how you do business deals.  Not saying it WILL happen, just that this could be a message sent that "we hold the cards, not you".

ChillinDylan Godsend

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Trump pulls out (LOL) of North Korea summit...

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-44242558



I suppose we should have expected this to fall through. Ah well.

Maybe - or this is, once again, just posturing for maximum leverage.  It's kind of how you do business deals.  Not saying it WILL happen, just that this could be a message sent that "we hold the cards, not you".

What that didn't take long.  Just as I thought - it's a leverage game.  This could go back and forth for a while, but eventually I think they'll meet: 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-missiles/trump-us-in-productive-talks-about-reinstating-june-north-korea-summit-idUSKCN1IQ02Y

Robert Neville

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Trump pulls out (LOL) of North Korea summit...

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-44242558



I suppose we should have expected this to fall through. Ah well.

Maybe - or this is, once again, just posturing for maximum leverage.  It's kind of how you do business deals.  Not saying it WILL happen, just that this could be a message sent that "we hold the cards, not you".

What that didn't take long.  Just as I thought - it's a leverage game.  This could go back and forth for a while, but eventually I think they'll meet: 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-missiles/trump-us-in-productive-talks-about-reinstating-june-north-korea-summit-idUSKCN1IQ02Y


I've read some ROK press, and their reactions were quite mixed. Most say the fact two Korean leaders met again yesterday, at the North's request, proves the plan is working. Still, others do not appreciate the uncertainty, especially when one of Moon's aides actually said he thought there would be a 99.9% chance of the summit happening right before Trump sent the letter saying he would pull out. Of course, opposition blames the aide for inexperience instead. Earlier this month, some in the opposition even claimed Moon and Kim begged the US to choose June 12th for the summit so that it would occur a day before the local elections in South Korea, which was really funny.

ChillinDylan Godsend

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Trump pulls out (LOL) of North Korea summit...

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-44242558



I suppose we should have expected this to fall through. Ah well.

Maybe - or this is, once again, just posturing for maximum leverage.  It's kind of how you do business deals.  Not saying it WILL happen, just that this could be a message sent that "we hold the cards, not you".

What that didn't take long.  Just as I thought - it's a leverage game.  This could go back and forth for a while, but eventually I think they'll meet: 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-missiles/trump-us-in-productive-talks-about-reinstating-june-north-korea-summit-idUSKCN1IQ02Y


I've read some ROK press, and their reactions were quite mixed. Most say the fact two Korean leaders met again yesterday, at the North's request, proves the plan is working. Still, others do not appreciate the uncertainty, especially when one of Moon's aides actually said he thought there would be a 99.9% chance of the summit happening right before Trump sent the letter saying he would pull out. Of course, opposition blames the aide for inexperience instead. Earlier this month, some in the opposition even claimed Moon and Kim begged the US to choose June 12th for the summit so that it would occur a day before the local elections in South Korea, which was really funny.

Interesting info.  I certainly haven't read anything from the ROK perspective.  I have just found it pretty hysterical that so many people were quick to dismiss US pulling out as a "failure" and "the end of negotiations", when the guy who pulled us out literally wrote a book about walking away from the table to gain leverage in negotiations.  From our end, I had very little doubt that it was a leverage ploy that had a good chance of succeeding - but there are so many in the media here that want him to fail that they couldn't wait to take shots at us pulling out.  In a great twist of irony, some past presidents have been SOOOO eager to make a deal that they would give away the farm to get ANY deal done - probably because they have no clue how to negotiate.

When I bought my car last year, we walked away from the dealership on 5 separate occasions.  They kept lowering the price each time.  Finally, they got within a few hundred dollars of the original price I had set.  I worked the negotiations in a very similar way, and I got the car for like $275 more than originally offered.  They came down almost $6,000.  My walking away was never once a failure - it was calculated negotiations.

Charles Longboat Jr.

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It seems to be more based on principle than any concrete action, but this is a pretty cool early birthday present. Of course, I'm not particularly well versed in foreign policy so some of you guys may know more about the implications than I do.

ChillinDylan Godsend

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It seems to be more based on principle than any concrete action, but this is a pretty cool early birthday present. Of course, I'm not particularly well versed in foreign policy so some of you guys may know more about the implications than I do.

I stayed up way too late last night watching this - mostly because it's simply history.  I think the outline for complete denuclearization is in its early stage, but I was pretty impressed that they were even come to some sort of signing pledge with actual goals outlined.  Now, CAUTION - North Korea has promised stuff before and has not come through.  So this is a first step, nothing more.  I know the crazy progressives want to crush Trump no matter what, and the alt-right want to hail this as a done deal.  As always, both sides are wrong.  There is a lot of stuff to get ironed out, a lot more meetings to be had, a lot of deadlines to schedule and be kept, and we have 2 leaders who can fly off the handle at any time.  So to say that there are potential potholes down the road is putting it mildly.

But, this was a positive first step - no matter what the MSM wants you to believe.  North Korea's development of nukes with Kim Jong Un as its leader has scared the crap out of me for quite a while.  I have advocated military action in the past to "remove" him as a leader; and, if it comes to it, I would still advocate that.  But, if a diplomatic solution can be had, I absolutely think that's the right way to go.  I was all for Obama talking with Cuba.  I think MEETING with other leaders to try and come to fair agreements is pretty much always a good idea.  I do NOT, however, agree with making a deal just to get a deal done (Obama with Iran comes to mind).  If we start bending over and giving North Korea stacks of money or lifting sanctions before they have done anything real, I will be pissed.  I don't mind the US/South Korea suspension of testings, because we could overpower them so quickly it doesn't even matter - and we can start the "war games" again immediately if need be.  But I would hope we don't GIVE them anything tangible until some of these outlined goals start to be achieved.

I am encouraged that Mike Pompeo is meeting with the North Koreans next week to start hammering out more of the specifics.  I do like Mike Pompeo quite a bit so far.  I do NOT like John Bolton (who is accompanying Pompeo on the trip).  I fear that he could screw the whole thing up. 

Robert Neville

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It seems to be more based on principle than any concrete action, but this is a pretty cool early birthday present. Of course, I'm not particularly well versed in foreign policy so some of you guys may know more about the implications than I do.

I'm consulting the ROK press again. So far, there's this on Korea Times, and a piece by a guest Indian commentator, with a pointed barb at a lot of people you may personally know:

"However, it would be inappropriate to judge the summit in hurry. Actually from the very beginning it was expected that if President Trump got a "weak deal," his detractors would have said "we were saying so" and if he had got a "strong deal," they would have said that "it would be difficult to implement.""

Also, so far, it seems like Moon doesn't mind the end of the war games, contra some reporting from the US. It makes sense, considering that he may actually be one of the most pacifist world leaders today - maybe even the most peaceful one out of all the major economies.

I certainly like him quite a lot now - it's a pity that according to the same ROK press, his economic record is mixed at best. There's nearly 3% growth (that his detractors say is inherited from his jailed predecessor and is partly due to government's own spending), but also record-breaking inequality (that his supporters say was inherited.) His plans to raise the minimum wage seem to have a lot of detractors from business as well. On the other hand, South Korea is currently a place with 68 hour legal working weeks, which he's going to change to 52 hours, and which business also opposes, so one needs to take it with a grain of salt.

I have advocated military action in the past to "remove" him as a leader; and, if it comes to it, I would still advocate that.

Erm, with all due respect, are you one of those willing to bet all their artillery pointed at Seoul would magically fail to work once you did that?

I am encouraged that Mike Pompeo is meeting with the North Koreans next week to start hammering out more of the specifics.  I do like Mike Pompeo quite a bit so far.  I do NOT like John Bolton (who is accompanying Pompeo on the trip).  I fear that he could screw the whole thing up. 

I remember I read speculation that Pompeo is eyeing a presidential run in the 30s or so, and so he would rather not have his record permanently tainted with a war. Even so, his ultimatum to Iran was still ridiculous - even The American Conservative (which remains the only us-right publication I like) pointed it out many times.


ChillinDylan Godsend

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It seems to be more based on principle than any concrete action, but this is a pretty cool early birthday present. Of course, I'm not particularly well versed in foreign policy so some of you guys may know more about the implications than I do.

I'm consulting the ROK press again. So far, there's this on Korea Times, and a piece by a guest Indian commentator, with a pointed barb at a lot of people you may personally know:

"However, it would be inappropriate to judge the summit in hurry. Actually from the very beginning it was expected that if President Trump got a "weak deal," his detractors would have said "we were saying so" and if he had got a "strong deal," they would have said that "it would be difficult to implement.""

Also, so far, it seems like Moon doesn't mind the end of the war games, contra some reporting from the US. It makes sense, considering that he may actually be one of the most pacifist world leaders today - maybe even the most peaceful one out of all the major economies.

I certainly like him quite a lot now - it's a pity that according to the same ROK press, his economic record is mixed at best. There's nearly 3% growth (that his detractors say is inherited from his jailed predecessor and is partly due to government's own spending), but also record-breaking inequality (that his supporters say was inherited.) His plans to raise the minimum wage seem to have a lot of detractors from business as well. On the other hand, South Korea is currently a place with 68 hour legal working weeks, which he's going to change to 52 hours, and which business also opposes, so one needs to take it with a grain of salt.

I have advocated military action in the past to "remove" him as a leader; and, if it comes to it, I would still advocate that.

Erm, with all due respect, are you one of those willing to bet all their artillery pointed at Seoul would magically fail to work once you did that?

I am encouraged that Mike Pompeo is meeting with the North Koreans next week to start hammering out more of the specifics.  I do like Mike Pompeo quite a bit so far.  I do NOT like John Bolton (who is accompanying Pompeo on the trip).  I fear that he could screw the whole thing up. 

I remember I read speculation that Pompeo is eyeing a presidential run in the 30s or so, and so he would rather not have his record permanently tainted with a war. Even so, his ultimatum to Iran was still ridiculous - even The American Conservative (which remains the only us-right publication I like) pointed it out many times.



Dude - I am WAY too baked to cut the snippet out of this big reply (maybe you can do it for me).  My point regarding North Korea was - we CANNOT let him get nukes capable of reaching the US mainland.  Whatever we have to do to stop that is what has to be done.  Our "ignorance" of them for the past decade plus was insane imo.  Continually saying "we denounce this" did next to nothing.  So, YES, if we had to remove him by force because there was no other way to keep him from developing accurate nukes, then so be it.  And I understand the South Korea argument - but if you think that we couldn't devise a way to take him out without him being alerted, I believe you are mistaken.  Futhermore, if we did annihilate him with bombs, his first thought wouldn't be "well I definitely need to blow up South Korea" - his first thought is "oh shit, I'm fucked, how do I save myself".  Also, there is a gap of space between the MDL and Seoul - and the rest of the population is much further south.  The lack of accuracy of the North Korean rockets (currently) makes it much less likely they are able to pinpoint much of that population.

Now, that being said, of course there would be casualties.  Which is why I was all for Trump meeting with him.  I really, really hope this works.  I'd probably give it about a 25% chance at this point given their past record.  But North Korea being able to develop ICMBs with pinpoint accuracy CANNOT UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES be allowed.  I know a lot of people will disagree with me on this, but it's where I stand and I'm not moving off of it.

Tut

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Robert Neville

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Earlier this month, some in the opposition even claimed Moon and Kim begged the US to choose June 12th for the summit so that it would occur a day before the local elections in South Korea, which was really funny.

Well, while that conspiracy theory probably wasn't grounded in reality, their actual worries certainly were: the performance by Moon's party is absolutely historic.

Meanwhile, the criticism of the summit is trickling in: see here and here. Then again, I heard their press that has English versions is all centre-right to **** conservative (Chosun Ilbo), so that may also weigh in.

Tut

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Earlier this month, some in the opposition even claimed Moon and Kim begged the US to choose June 12th for the summit so that it would occur a day before the local elections in South Korea, which was really funny.

Well, while that conspiracy theory probably wasn't grounded in reality, their actual worries certainly were: the performance by Moon's party is absolutely historic.

Meanwhile, the criticism of the summit is trickling in: see here and here. Then again, I heard their press that has English versions is all centre-right to **** conservative (Chosun Ilbo), so that may also weigh in.

Let Us March Forward Dynamically To Final Victory, Inspired By The Indomitable Spirit Of Comrade Robert Neville And His Revolutionary Posts

Charles Longboat Jr.

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Does anyone else read the titles of Kim Jong-Un's speeches for fun sometimes, or is it just me?
Does anyone else read the titles of Kim Jong-Un's speeches for fun sometimes, or is it just me?
Iím partial to National Heritage Conservation Is a Patriotic Undertaking for Adding Brilliance to the History and Traditions of Our Nation and Let Us Further Intensify the Work of the Women's Union Under the Banner of Modelling the Whole Society on Kimilsungism-Kimjongilism.

 

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